MyYakan analyzes available data to generate probabilities, confidence scores, scenarios, and risk analysis — so you understand possible outcomes and decide with clarity.
ⓘMyYakan does not give buy/sell instructions — it gives a deeper understanding of the odds.
Analysis dashboard preview
HighConfidence
Scenario distribution
▲Bull scenario10%–25%
▼Bear scenario10%–25%
Volatility regime
SubduedTypicalElevated
Balanced signal with low volatility — context, not a risk rating.
Why we're different
Not a signals channel. Not a chatbot.
News tells you what happened. Signal groups and chatbots tell you what to do, with nothing on the line. MyYakan tells you the odds — with a specific, resolvable claim behind every read.
MyYakan
✓A specific, resolvable forecast: a price level by a deadline
✓Numbers from documented quantitative models — the AI only explains them, never invents them
✓Confidence as a measured quality band, with its components shown
✓Both scenarios side by side, plus exactly what would invalidate the read
✓Every forecast is specific and resolvable — it stands or falls on what actually happens, never quietly forgotten
✓We claim only what the evidence supports — calibrated, never hyped
Signals · chatbots · news · prediction blogs
✗Vague calls, or 'buy/sell' with no defined outcome to check
✗An opaque take, or a chatbot guess you can't trace to a method
✗No measured confidence — just a confident tone
✗One-sided conviction, with no stated way to be wrong
✗No record — yesterday's bad call quietly disappears
✗Claims of skill that are never settled or scored
The intelligence engine
One mind feeding every analysis
Every published number comes from documented quantitative models — the AI only explains them, it never invents them. These are the actual inputs behind a read.
Volatility models
How widely the price tends to move.
Empirical price history
The real distribution of past moves.
Options-implied (where available)
The market's own priced-in expectations.
Scheduled events & macro
Rate decisions, inflation, jobs, earnings.
Settlement & resolution
A defined source that resolves every forecast.
Falsifiability
Every read states up front what would prove it wrong.
What MyYakan generates
Six outputs that turn uncertainty into clarity
📊
Probabilities
A clear probability range for a specific, resolvable event — never a single false-precise number.
🎯
Confidence
How much to trust the estimate — shown as a band (the quality of the read), never a directional call.
🌗
Scenarios
An upside and a downside scenario, side by side with equal weight — the decision stays yours.
📈
Volatility context
How the recent regime compares to the asset's own history — context for the estimate, not a risk rating.
🗓️
Drivers & events
The real factors moving the numbers, and the scheduled events that could change them.
🧭
Decision support
What would invalidate the analysis — information to support your decision, not instructions.
How to read a MyYakan forecast
Every part, explained
No jargon, and no hidden methodology page — the forecast above already shows each of these. Here is what each part means.
🎯
A probability, not a certainty
We publish a range (e.g. 45%–55%) for one specific, resolvable event — a price level by a deadline — never a single false-precision number, and never an 'it will go up'.
🧩
Why the number is what it is
Each read lists the real drivers that pushed the probability and confidence up or down — volatility, distance to the level, agreement between models — each in plain language, so the number is never arbitrary.
📶
Confidence is a separate axis
A band — High / Medium / Low — for how much to trust the estimate itself, built from data quality, model agreement, regime familiarity and conditions. High confidence on a 50/50 read means a solid estimate, not a directional call.
⚖️
Both sides, equal weight
A strong-up and a strong-down scenario shown side by side with identical prominence and their own probability ranges — no dominant colour, no nudge. The decision stays yours.
🗓️
The evidence and events
The scheduled events that could move the asset — rate decisions, inflation, jobs, earnings — woven in with why they matter and what to watch, plus any unusually large recent move and how it resolved historically.
⚠️
What would prove it wrong
Shown as prominently as the probability: the conditions that would invalidate the read — a price move beyond ~1<sig>σ</sig>, volatility beyond ~2×, a high-impact event, or the validity window elapsing.
You choose what to follow
You search and select any asset in our approved universe — built from objective published criteria (liquidity, multi-venue listing, history depth), never a hand-curated list. The approved universe spans 230 assets across five classes. Crypto is live today; forex, stocks, indices and commodities roll out as each class's data feed is connected. The featured assets are just a starting point.
Featured assets get broader visibility and examples, but analysis is available for every asset in the approved universe.
Confidence differs across assets based on actual source availability — and we show that difference transparently, never hide it.
Radical honesty
What's real, what's measured, what's still limited
Our identity is intellectual honesty: we claim only what the evidence supports today — and disclose the rest plainly.
What's real today
Live, evidence-based probabilities for crypto from a documented engine — calibrated out-of-sample in backtest, with a full explanation behind every forecast. More asset classes follow as each one's data feed is connected.
What we measure
Calibration — do our 20%s happen about 20% of the time? That is what we measure: whether our probabilities mean what they say — with a Brier score and reliability bins against a base-rate baseline, never a confident tone in place of evidence.
What's still limited (disclosed, not hidden)
The options-implied estimator and a multi-venue settlement median are deferred and disclosed, not hidden. We make no claim to beat the market — only that our probabilities mean what they say.
What we never do
No buy/sell signals, no targets to act on, no position sizing or stop-losses, no portfolio advice. MyYakan is decision support — the decision is always yours.
Good analysis doesn't impress everyone — it makes the right decision clearer.
230
assets in the approved universe
5
asset classes (crypto live; more being connected)
0
invented numbers — every probability comes from a documented model, never an AI guess
Understand the odds, honestly
MyYakan is invite-only during the beta. Join the waitlist and we'll send your invitation in an upcoming wave.
We'll only use your email to invite you — no marketing blasts.
See it for yourself
A real forecast — nothing hidden, no sign-in
This is a live MyYakan read on Bitcoin, exactly as a member sees it — every number computed by the engine, the AI only puts it into words. Read it top to bottom: the probability, why it lands there, how much to trust it, both scenarios, and what would prove it wrong. And when the evidence is balanced, we show a near-coin-flip honestly — we never manufacture a call.
BTC, next 72h: closer to a coin flip — no clear edge either way. Most likely it holds around 63,182.571–65,533.785; a strong move up or down is possible but unlikely. We don't predict — we show the evidence-based picture and what would change it.
HighConfidence — quality of the estimate
Calibration confidence: High — a number from a back-testable model, not an opinionHigh-quality estimate — of a balanced outcome, not a directional call.
Calibrated probability
45%–55%
0%50%100%
Range direction
Volatility regimeTypical
How recent volatility compares to this asset's own history — context for the estimate, not a risk or advice rating.
A range — no false precisionProbabilistic context — not a recommendation.
Why this number?
— The calibrated forecast at the centre · each signal connected to it · click to open its approved section
Descriptive technical reading
Reading…
Aggregate of the technical signals at the selected timeframe — not the calibrated forecast
Reading…
Strategies
Reading…
Trend
Reading…
Momentum
Reading…
Candles & price action
Reading…
Candle chart
No significant news right now
News
No impact
Leaders
Neutral
Oscillators
Neutral
Volume
🟢 upward lean · 🔴 downward lean · 🟡 neutral — a descriptive companion read only, not the engine probability
Probabilistic context — not a recommendation.
A written reading isn't available for this analysis.
Attribution · Each factor's direction and strength — qualitative, not exact percentages. Open a factor for detail.
▼Lowers the oddsRaises the odds▲
▼VolatilityProbabilityLowers · moderate▾
Volatility is subdued (~10th percentile), so outcomes cluster nearer the current price — strong moves in either direction are less likely than usual.
•Distance to targetProbabilityNeutral · strong▾
The target is essentially at the current price, so reaching it is close to a coin flip — this is why the near-money probability sits around the even line.
•
🧭 Composite — the analyses' lean
A weighted fold of what the enabled strategies below say on the selected timeframe. A descriptive read of market state — not a recommendation.
Computing the read…
🧩 The strategies — what does each say right now?
Enable or disable any strategy to include it in the composite. The signal bars = the strategy's reliability on the selected timeframe.
◈ Trend
Moving-average cross (EMA)
Computing the read…
MACD
Computing the read…
Trend strength (ADX/DMI)
Computing the read…
Ichimoku cloud
Computing the read…
Supertrend
Computing the read…
Parabolic SAR
Computing the read…
Donchian channels
Computing the read…
◈ Momentum
Relative strength (RSI)
Computing the read…
Stochastic
Computing the read…
Commodity channel index (CCI)
Computing the read…
Williams %R
Computing the read…
Money flow (MFI)
Computing the read…
Rate of change (ROC)
Computing the read…
◈ Candles & price action
Candlestick patterns
Computing the read…
Support & resistance
Computing the read…
Session VWAP
Computing the read…
Pivot points
Computing the read…
Fibonacci retracement
Computing the read…
Chart patterns
Computing the read…
Trendline breaks
Computing the read…
◈ Context — volatility & volume
Bollinger band width
Computing the read…
Volatility regime (ATR)
Computing the read…
Relative volume
Computing the read…
Disclaimer: MyYakan is a decision-support tool providing probabilistic analysis for informational purposes only. The platform does not provide financial advice, trading recommendations, buy/sell signals, or portfolio management. Historical model performance does not guarantee future results.
Directional drift
Probability
Neutral · weak
▾
This asset oscillates rather than trends over this horizon, so the model adds no built-in upward or downward tilt — the odds come from volatility around the current price, not a predicted direction.
▲Estimator agreementConfidenceRaises · moderate▾
The two independent estimators (a volatility model and an empirical history model) agree closely, which raises the quality of the estimate.
▲Data qualityConfidenceRaises · weak▾
Ample history (~730 days) and fresh data support the estimate.
Possible scenarios
▲Strong move up10%–25%
▼Strong move down10%–25%
0%50%100%
▲Strong move up
10%–25%
>= 65,533.785
▼Strong move down
10%–25%
<= 63,182.571
Confidence factors
A
A
C
A
Reading the gradesweaker→stronger
E
0–45%
D
45–60%
C
60–75%
B
75–90%
A
90+%
⚠What could change our mind
Validity elapses on 2026-08-08 15:34 UTC
A price move beyond ~1 for the horizon
Realized volatility beyond ~2× the level at generation
High-impact event: Inflation (CPI)
Probabilistic context — not a recommendation.
What changed since 2026-08-06
62,716.856–66,419.70262,576.594–66,168.399
and the range narrowed — calmer
Events that could move this
Woven into the analysis — what's coming, why it matters, and what to watch.
🧪Experimental — not yet calibrated — these figures come from the engine's early base rates and are still being validated against real outcomes; treat them as exploratory, not established.
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
ChinaAug 9, 01:30 AM UTCHigh impact
Why it matters: Inflation is the main input to rate decisions, so a surprise re-prices the expected rate path at once — moving the currency, yields, and risk assets.
Consensus: 0.8%Previous: 1%Source: OHLC.dev
⬆ Below expectations (cooling)45–51%
Most likelyExperimental — not yet calibrated
A cooler-than-expected print usually strengthens expectations for easier policy: a softer currency and yields, and an upward tilt for higher-risk and rate-sensitive assets. The bigger the surprise, the wider the move tends to be.
AffectsBitcoin▲US Dollar▼Gold▲Stocks▲S&P 500▲
⬇ Above expectations (hot)25–31%
Experimental — not yet calibrated
A hotter-than-expected print usually pushes back easier-policy expectations: firmer yields and currency, and pressure on higher-risk assets; rate-sensitive assets can feel a double weight from firmer yields and a stronger currency together.
AffectsBitcoin▼US Dollar▲Gold▼Stocks▼S&P 500▼
↔ In line with expectations21–27%
Experimental — not yet calibrated
With no new information the market usually returns to its technical drivers within hours, though the internals (core measures, shelter and services) can still move it even when the headline matches.
What to watch: The internals often matter as much as the headline; volatility around the release is usually elevated, and the picture after the first big move settles is calmer than the knee-jerk reaction.— Context, not a recommendation.
RBA Interest Rate Decision
AustraliaAug 11, 04:30 AM UTCHigh impact
Why it matters: A central bank's rate decision resets expectations for the whole local rate path at once, so a surprise versus consensus tends to move the currency, local yields, and risk assets together.
Consensus: 4.35%Previous: 4.35%Source: OHLC.dev
⬆ More dovish than expected4–10%
Experimental — not yet calibrated
A deeper cut or a softer tone than markets priced usually eases the local currency and yields and lifts higher-risk and rate-sensitive assets; the larger the surprise, the wider the move tends to be.
AffectsBitcoin▲US Dollar▼Gold▲Stocks▲S&P 500▲
⬇ More hawkish than expected9–15%
Experimental — not yet calibrated
A hold or hike where easing was expected — or a firmer tone — usually firms the currency and yields and weighs on higher-risk and rate-sensitive assets.
AffectsBitcoin▼US Dollar▲Gold▼Stocks▼S&P 500▼
↔ In line with expectations78–84%
Most likelyExperimental — not yet calibrated
With no new information the market usually returns to its own technical drivers within hours, though the statement's wording and any projections can still move it even when the rate itself matches.
What to watch: The wording of the statement and any projections often matter as much as the decision itself; volatility around the release is usually elevated, and the picture after the first big move settles is calmer than the initial reaction.— Context, not a recommendation.
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)
GermanyAug 12, 06:00 AM UTCHigh impact
Why it matters: Inflation is the main input to rate decisions, so a surprise re-prices the expected rate path at once — moving the currency, yields, and risk assets.
Consensus: 2.8%Previous: 2.8%Source: OHLC.dev
⬆ Below expectations (cooling)1–7%
Experimental — not yet calibrated
A cooler-than-expected print usually strengthens expectations for easier policy: a softer currency and yields, and an upward tilt for higher-risk and rate-sensitive assets. The bigger the surprise, the wider the move tends to be.
AffectsBitcoin▲US Dollar▼Gold▲Stocks▲S&P 500▲
⬇ Above expectations (hot)0–5%
Experimental — not yet calibrated
A hotter-than-expected print usually pushes back easier-policy expectations: firmer yields and currency, and pressure on higher-risk assets; rate-sensitive assets can feel a double weight from firmer yields and a stronger currency together.
AffectsBitcoin▼US Dollar▲Gold▼Stocks▼S&P 500▼
↔ In line with expectations92–98%
Most likelyExperimental — not yet calibrated
With no new information the market usually returns to its technical drivers within hours, though the internals (core measures, shelter and services) can still move it even when the headline matches.
What to watch: The internals often matter as much as the headline; volatility around the release is usually elevated, and the picture after the first big move settles is calmer than the knee-jerk reaction.— Context, not a recommendation.
Consumer Price Index (MoM)
USAug 12, 12:30 PM UTCHigh impact
Why it matters: Inflation is the main input to rate decisions, so a surprise re-prices the expected rate path at once — moving the currency, yields, and risk assets.
Consensus: 0.1%Previous: -0.4%Source: OHLC.dev
⬆ Below expectations (cooling)31–37%
Experimental — not yet calibrated
A cooler-than-expected print usually strengthens expectations for easier policy: a softer currency and yields, and an upward tilt for higher-risk and rate-sensitive assets. The bigger the surprise, the wider the move tends to be.
AffectsBitcoin▲US Dollar▼Gold▲Stocks▲S&P 500▲
⬇ Above expectations (hot)20–26%
Experimental — not yet calibrated
A hotter-than-expected print usually pushes back easier-policy expectations: firmer yields and currency, and pressure on higher-risk assets; rate-sensitive assets can feel a double weight from firmer yields and a stronger currency together.
AffectsBitcoin▼US Dollar▲Gold▼Stocks▼S&P 500▼
↔ In line with expectations40–46%
Most likelyExperimental — not yet calibrated
With no new information the market usually returns to its technical drivers within hours, though the internals (core measures, shelter and services) can still move it even when the headline matches.
What to watch: The internals often matter as much as the headline; volatility around the release is usually elevated, and the picture after the first big move settles is calmer than the knee-jerk reaction.— Context, not a recommendation.
RBNZ Inflation Expectations (QoQ)
New ZealandAug 13, 03:00 AM UTCHigh impact
Why it matters: Inflation is the main input to rate decisions, so a surprise re-prices the expected rate path at once — moving the currency, yields, and risk assets.
Previous: 2.53%Source: OHLC.dev
⬆ Below expectations (cooling)12–18%
Experimental — not yet calibrated
A cooler-than-expected print usually strengthens expectations for easier policy: a softer currency and yields, and an upward tilt for higher-risk and rate-sensitive assets. The bigger the surprise, the wider the move tends to be.
AffectsBitcoin▲US Dollar▼Gold▲Stocks▲S&P 500▲
⬇ Above expectations (hot)9–15%
Experimental — not yet calibrated
A hotter-than-expected print usually pushes back easier-policy expectations: firmer yields and currency, and pressure on higher-risk assets; rate-sensitive assets can feel a double weight from firmer yields and a stronger currency together.
AffectsBitcoin▼US Dollar▲Gold▼Stocks▼S&P 500▼
↔ In line with expectations70–76%
Most likelyExperimental — not yet calibrated
With no new information the market usually returns to its technical drivers within hours, though the internals (core measures, shelter and services) can still move it even when the headline matches.
What to watch: The internals often matter as much as the headline; volatility around the release is usually elevated, and the picture after the first big move settles is calmer than the knee-jerk reaction.— Context, not a recommendation.
Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)
UKAug 13, 06:00 AM UTCHigh impact
Why it matters: Growth data frames how much room a central bank has and how resilient demand is, so a surprise versus consensus tends to move the currency, yields, and risk assets.
Consensus: 0.4%Previous: 0.6%Source: OHLC.dev
⬆ Stronger than expected28–34%
Experimental — not yet calibrated
A stronger-than-expected reading usually supports the currency and risk assets on the growth signal, though it can also firm expectations for tighter policy.
AffectsBitcoin▲US Dollar▲Gold▼Stocks▲S&P 500▲
⬇ Weaker than expected19–25%
Experimental — not yet calibrated
A weaker-than-expected reading usually weighs on the currency and risk assets on the growth signal, though it can also lift expectations for easier policy.
AffectsBitcoin▼US Dollar▼Gold▲Stocks▼S&P 500▼
↔ In line with expectations44–50%
Most likelyExperimental — not yet calibrated
With no new information the market usually returns to its technical drivers within hours, though the composition of the reading can still move it even when the headline matches.
What to watch: The composition of the reading (consumption, investment, trade) often matters as much as the headline; volatility around the release is usually elevated.— Context, not a recommendation.
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)
USAug 13, 12:30 PM UTCHigh impact
Why it matters: Inflation is the main input to rate decisions, so a surprise re-prices the expected rate path at once — moving the currency, yields, and risk assets.
Previous: 4.7%Source: OHLC.dev
⬆ Below expectations (cooling)5–11%
Experimental — not yet calibrated
A cooler-than-expected print usually strengthens expectations for easier policy: a softer currency and yields, and an upward tilt for higher-risk and rate-sensitive assets. The bigger the surprise, the wider the move tends to be.
AffectsBitcoin▲US Dollar▼Gold▲Stocks▲S&P 500▲
⬇ Above expectations (hot)19–25%
Experimental — not yet calibrated
A hotter-than-expected print usually pushes back easier-policy expectations: firmer yields and currency, and pressure on higher-risk assets; rate-sensitive assets can feel a double weight from firmer yields and a stronger currency together.
AffectsBitcoin▼US Dollar▲Gold▼Stocks▼S&P 500▼
↔ In line with expectations66–72%
Most likelyExperimental — not yet calibrated
With no new information the market usually returns to its technical drivers within hours, though the internals (core measures, shelter and services) can still move it even when the headline matches.
What to watch: The internals often matter as much as the headline; volatility around the release is usually elevated, and the picture after the first big move settles is calmer than the knee-jerk reaction.— Context, not a recommendation.
Retail Sales Control Group
USAug 14, 12:30 PM UTCHigh impact
Why it matters: This is a scheduled high-impact release for its economy, so a surprise versus expectations tends to move the local currency and assets.
Previous: 0.5%Source: OHLC.dev
⬆ Better than expected55–61%
Most likelyExperimental — not yet calibrated
A better-than-expected outcome usually supports the local currency and assets; the larger the surprise, the wider the move tends to be.
AffectsBitcoin▲US Dollar▲Gold▼Stocks▲S&P 500▲
⬇ Worse than expected35–41%
Experimental — not yet calibrated
A worse-than-expected outcome usually weighs on the local currency and assets.
AffectsBitcoin▼US Dollar▼Gold▲Stocks▼S&P 500▼
↔ In line with expectations1–7%
Experimental — not yet calibrated
With no new information the market usually returns to its own technical drivers within hours.
What to watch: Post-release behaviour is the thing to read — volatility around the print is usually elevated, and the picture after the first big move settles is calmer than the initial reaction.— Context, not a recommendation.
Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)
JapanAug 16, 11:50 PM UTCHigh impact
Why it matters: Growth data frames how much room a central bank has and how resilient demand is, so a surprise versus consensus tends to move the currency, yields, and risk assets.
Previous: 0.5%Source: OHLC.dev
⬆ Stronger than expected41–47%
Most likelyExperimental — not yet calibrated
A stronger-than-expected reading usually supports the currency and risk assets on the growth signal, though it can also firm expectations for tighter policy.
AffectsBitcoin▲US Dollar▲Gold▼Stocks▲S&P 500▲
⬇ Weaker than expected39–45%
Experimental — not yet calibrated
A weaker-than-expected reading usually weighs on the currency and risk assets on the growth signal, though it can also lift expectations for easier policy.
AffectsBitcoin▼US Dollar▼Gold▲Stocks▼S&P 500▼
↔ In line with expectations11–17%
Experimental — not yet calibrated
With no new information the market usually returns to its technical drivers within hours, though the composition of the reading can still move it even when the headline matches.
What to watch: The composition of the reading (consumption, investment, trade) often matters as much as the headline; volatility around the release is usually elevated.— Context, not a recommendation.
Industrial Production (YoY)
ChinaAug 17, 02:00 AM UTCHigh impact
Why it matters: This is a scheduled high-impact release for its economy, so a surprise versus expectations tends to move the local currency and assets.
Previous: 5.3%Source: OHLC.dev
⬆ Better than expected38–44%
Experimental — not yet calibrated
A better-than-expected outcome usually supports the local currency and assets; the larger the surprise, the wider the move tends to be.
AffectsBitcoin▲US Dollar▲Gold▼Stocks▲S&P 500▲
⬇ Worse than expected12–18%
Experimental — not yet calibrated
A worse-than-expected outcome usually weighs on the local currency and assets.
AffectsBitcoin▼US Dollar▼Gold▲Stocks▼S&P 500▼
↔ In line with expectations41–47%
Most likelyExperimental — not yet calibrated
With no new information the market usually returns to its own technical drivers within hours.
What to watch: Post-release behaviour is the thing to read — volatility around the print is usually elevated, and the picture after the first big move settles is calmer than the initial reaction.— Context, not a recommendation.
Context, not a prediction — these show what's coming and why it matters; they're not a separate probability or a recommendation.
